Monthly US Stock Returns (1931–2002, Stock & Watson)

Description

Monthly data from 1931–2002 for US stock prices, measured by the broad-based (NYSE and AMEX) value-weighted index of stock prices as constructed by the Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP).

Usage

data("USStocksSW")

Format

A monthly multiple time series from 1931(1) to 2002(12) with 2 variables.

returns

monthly excess returns. The monthly return on stocks (in percentage terms) minus the return on a safe asset (in this case: US treasury bill). The return on the stocks includes the price changes plus any dividends you receive during the month.

dividend

100 times log(dividend yield). (Multiplication by 100 means the changes are interpreted as percentage points). It is calculated as the dividends over the past 12 months, divided by the price in the current month.

Source

Online complements to Stock and Watson (2007).

http://wps.aw.com/aw_stock_ie_2/

References

Campbell, J.Y., and Yogo, M. (2006). Efficient Tests of Stock Return Predictability Journal of Financial Economics, 81, 27–60.

Stock, J.H. and Watson, M.W. (2007). Introduction to Econometrics, 2nd ed. Boston: Addison Wesley.

See Also

StockWatson2007

Examples

data("USStocksSW")
plot(USStocksSW)

## Stock and Watson, p. 540, Table 14.3
library("dynlm")
fm1 <- dynlm(returns ~ L(returns), data = USStocksSW, start = c(1960,1))
coeftest(fm1, vcov = sandwich)
fm2 <- dynlm(returns ~ L(returns, 1:2), data = USStocksSW, start = c(1960,1))
waldtest(fm2, vcov = sandwich)
fm3 <- dynlm(returns ~ L(returns, 1:4), data = USStocksSW, start = c(1960,1))
waldtest(fm3, vcov = sandwich)

## Stock and Watson, p. 574, Table 14.7
fm4 <- dynlm(returns ~ L(returns) + L(d(dividend)), data = USStocksSW, start = c(1960, 1))
fm5 <- dynlm(returns ~ L(returns, 1:2) + L(d(dividend), 1:2), data = USStocksSW, start = c(1960,1))
fm6 <- dynlm(returns ~ L(returns) + L(dividend), data = USStocksSW, start = c(1960,1))

Results

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> library(AER)
Loading required package: car
Loading required package: lmtest
Loading required package: zoo

Attaching package: 'zoo'

The following objects are masked from 'package:base':

    as.Date, as.Date.numeric

Loading required package: sandwich
Loading required package: survival
> png(filename="/home/ddbj/snapshot/RGM3/R_CC/result/AER/USStocksSW.Rd_%03d_medium.png", width=480, height=480)
> ### Name: USStocksSW
> ### Title: Monthly US Stock Returns (1931-2002, Stock & Watson)
> ### Aliases: USStocksSW
> ### Keywords: datasets
> 
> ### ** Examples
> 
> data("USStocksSW")
> plot(USStocksSW)
> 
> ## Stock and Watson, p. 540, Table 14.3
> library("dynlm")
> fm1 <- dynlm(returns ~ L(returns), data = USStocksSW, start = c(1960,1))
> coeftest(fm1, vcov = sandwich)

t test of coefficients:

            Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 0.311562   0.197371  1.5786   0.1151
L(returns)  0.050390   0.051208  0.9840   0.3256

> fm2 <- dynlm(returns ~ L(returns, 1:2), data = USStocksSW, start = c(1960,1))
> waldtest(fm2, vcov = sandwich)
Wald test

Model 1: returns ~ L(returns, 1:2)
Model 2: returns ~ 1
  Res.Df Df      F Pr(>F)
1    513                 
2    515 -2 1.3423 0.2622
> fm3 <- dynlm(returns ~ L(returns, 1:4), data = USStocksSW, start = c(1960,1))
> waldtest(fm3, vcov = sandwich)
Wald test

Model 1: returns ~ L(returns, 1:4)
Model 2: returns ~ 1
  Res.Df Df      F Pr(>F)
1    511                 
2    515 -4 0.7069 0.5875
> 
> ## Stock and Watson, p. 574, Table 14.7
> fm4 <- dynlm(returns ~ L(returns) + L(d(dividend)), data = USStocksSW, start = c(1960, 1))
> fm5 <- dynlm(returns ~ L(returns, 1:2) + L(d(dividend), 1:2), data = USStocksSW, start = c(1960,1))
> fm6 <- dynlm(returns ~ L(returns) + L(dividend), data = USStocksSW, start = c(1960,1))
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
>