Computes the rank of verifying observations
relative to the corresponding ensemble forecasts
and plots its histogram.
Usage
verifRankHist( forecasts, observations)
Arguments
forecasts
A matrix of ensemble forecasts, in which the rows corresponds to
locations and times and the columns correspond to the individual
ensemble members.
observations
A vector of observations corresponding to the locations and times
of the forecasts.
Details
The verification rank is used to assess calibration of a forecast
ensemble. A more uniform verification rank histogram
indicates better calibartion.
Value
A vector giving the rank of verifying observations relative
to the corresponding ensemble forecasts.
The verification rank historgram is plotted.
References
A. E. Raftery, T. Gneiting, F. Balabdaoui and M. Polakowski,
Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles,
Monthly Weather Review 133:1155-1174, 2005.
T. Gneiting, F. Balabdaoui and A. Raftery,
Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness.
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 69:243–268, 2007.
J. M. Sloughter, A. E. Raftery, T. Gneiting and C. Fraley,
Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting
using Bayesian model averaging,
Monthly Weather Review 135:3209–3220, 2007.
C. Fraley, A. E. Raftery, T. Gneiting and J. M. Sloughter,
ensembleBMA: An R Package for Probabilistic Forecasting
using Ensemble and Bayesian Model Averaging,
Technical Report No. 516R, Department of Statistics, University of
Washington, 2007 (revised 2010).
C. Fraley, A. E. Raftery, T. Gneiting,
Calibrating Multi-Model Forecast Ensembles
with Exchangeable and Missing Members using Bayesian Model Averaging,
Monthly Weather Review 138:190–202, 2010.
J. M. Sloughter, T. Gneiting and A. E. Raftery,
Probabilistic wind speed forecasting
using ensembles and Bayesian model averaging,
Journal of the American Statistical Association, 105:25–35, 2010.