Moving Epidemic Method R Package

Description

This package creates the model described in the Moving Epidemics Method (MEM), used to monitor influenza activity during the seasonal surveillance.

Details

Functions to calculate the optimal timing of the epidemic and a threshold to give an early alert of the upcoming epidemic.

Author(s)

Jose E. Lozano Alonso <lozalojo@jcyl.es>.

References

Vega T., Lozano J.E. (2004) Modelling influenza epidemic - can we detect the beginning and predict the intensity and duration? International Congress Series 1263 (2004) 281-283.
Vega T., Lozano J.E. (2012) Influenza surveillance in Europe: establishing epidemic thresholds by the Moving Epidemic Method. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, DOI:10.1111/j.1750-2659.2012.00422.x.

Examples

## Castilla y Leon Influenza Rates data 
data(flucyl)
## Optimal timing of an epidemic
tim<-epitiming(flucyl[1])
print(tim)
summary(tim)
plot(tim)
## Threshold calculation
epi<-epimem(flucyl)
print(epi)
summary(epi)
plot(epi)
## Intensity thresholds
intensity<-memintensity(flucyl)
intensity
## Trend parameters
trend<-memtrend(flucyl)
trend

Results